74 South Africans leave the country for good every day

The latest migrant data from the United Nations shows that approximately 108,000 South Africans emigrated from the country between 2020 and 2024, averaging 27,000 a year, or 74 people leaving every day.

The granting of refugee status to 49 white South Africans has sparked furious debate and controversy in the country,

Some sectors of society have dubbed the refugees as traitors and cowards, playing into a political performance by the Trump administration to cast South Africa in a bad light.

Others have called the move perfectly justified, citing the various race-based laws that target the white minority in the country by discriminating against them in the name of transformation.

Regardless of how the event is framed, it has called into question how remarkable the move really is in the bigger picture of emigration in South Africa.

South Africa does not officially track emigration data, with most insights about migration patterns coming from external sources, like the United Nations.

For years, emigration numbers have had to be determined through better third-party sources, like population counts in popular destination countries, or anecdotal figures from companies that assist expats.

Some official local information can be gleaned through Stats SA’s population estimates and tax residency data from SARS, but the state organ does not give an official number on how many South Africans have left.

The last official update giving in an indication of emigration came from Stats SA in 2024, when it published its Migration Profile Report for South Africa.

This report was largely based on data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, tracking migration numbers through to 2020.

The UN has since updated its data on what it calls “International Migrant Stock” through to mid-year 2024, showing that just over 1 million South Africans are living abroad.

The UN’s data shows that in 1990, just under 295,400 South Africans were living internationally. By 2000, this increased to around 495,000, hitting 705,000 by 2010.

In 2020, the number of South Africans living abroad hit just under 900,000—below the UN’s previous estimates—and surpassing 1 million in 2024.

Because the number is a running total, this means that the UN tracked over 710,000 South Africans moving abroad between 1990 and 2024, averaging about 57 people leaving every day.

The data shows that this average fluctuates depending on the period. The highest number of exits was seen between 1995 and 2000, where the average hit 75 people.

More recently, and most notably, South Africa saw the average number almost hit the same levels over the past four years, with an average of 74 people leaving every day between 2020 and 2024.

White South Africans are saying goodbye

What makes the 49 South Africans moving to the United States remarkable, however, is the specificity of race, and the fact they have moved as refugees.

These are two aspects that we also have data for and also shows that it is not that unusual.

According to Stats SA’s population estimates, published each year around July, South Africa’s white population has been shrinking for decades.

The latest numbers in July 2024 showed that the white population in the country has experienced net out-migration since 2001.

This has been happening even long before that. Approximately 203,000 white South Africans emigrated between 1985 and 2000.

The assumptions carried by Stats SA in 2024 show that, between 2021 and 2026, South Africa is expected to see a net out-migration of 84,000 white South Africans.

Tracking data from 1985 through to 2026, it is estimated that just under 700,000 white South Africans would have emigrated by 2026.

Thousands of South Africans are living as refugees

Stats SA’s migration report also contained notable information about South Africans living abroad as refugees.

According to the data, approximately 4,250 South Africans have managed to leave the country as refugees, a number that has ramped up significantly since 2014.

This has been most successful in the United States, where over 2,700 South Africans entered as Asylum seekers in 2021 and 2022.

Stats SA stated that the decision to seek asylum outside South Africa is driven by a complex interplay of political, economic, social, and environmental factors.

Key among these are individual circumstances and vulnerabilities, it said.

In effect, the body sees it as a highly individualistic move, as opposed to the mass discrimination currently being painted by the United States.

In 2021, the United States of America was the primary destination for South African asylum seekers, with 1,370 individuals seeking refuge.

“This indicates a significant number of South Africans looking for asylum in the United States due to various concerns,” Stats SA said.

Ireland was another prominent destination, with 638 South African asylum seekers in 2021.

Australia received 495 South African asylum seekers in 2021, and Canada and Israel also received South African asylum seekers, with 187 and 391 individuals, respectively.

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Brazil, France, the Republic of Korea, and Germany had smaller numbers of South African asylum seekers in 2021.

In 2022, the trend continued with the US still being the leading destination for South African asylum seekers, albeit with a slightly lower number of 1,351 individuals.